As the 2020 season winds down and all the bike shops are preparing for 2021, I thought I would take a moment and answer some of the questions about the Bicycle industry that I am asked every day. Here are the answers as they apply to Goose Creek Cycle and to the industry as a whole.
Question #1: I'm looking for a kids bike / entry level mountain bike/ hybrid. Do you have any in stock and if I order one will I get it by Christmas.
If you have asked this question of your local bike shop you probably know by now that most models of most bikes under $1000 are hard to come by. It is not that these bikes are not being made, it is that they are being snatched up as soon as them become available. Most manufacturers are working off long backorder list. Different manufactures are handling this differently, but suffice to say most bikes never hit the manufacturers physical inventory. As soon as they come into the warehouse they are sorted and shipped to shops to fill existing orders. Much the same is true for the local bike shops. Most of us are working off of some system of either specific orders or interest lists. Which means that if a bike becomes available at all, it doesn't last long.
Because of long lead times and uncertain availability we at Goose Creek have stopped taking down payments on bicycle orders. You may still order a specific bike and wait for it, but what most people are doing is going on what we call "the list" We are keeping a list of customers who are looking for a specific type of bike, their size and approximate price range. Whenever we get a bike in we start down the list and start contacting customers for whom the bike is a close match. We do our best not to have multiple customers "racing" for the same bike and give preference to people who have been on the list longer. Most bikes are gone in a matter of days.
Question #2: Do you have any Bikes in stock?
Yes. Although still somewhat hit or miss, there are some categories of bike that still have reasonable availability. We got lucky and took a huge shipment of single speed beach cruisers, so we have those in stock. Also Road Bike and Full Suspension Mountain bike and e-bike inventories are still holding. So while you may be a little more limited than normal there are still good options out there.
Question #3: So whats the hang up? Are the manufactures not making bikes or is demand really that high?
There is no simple answer here, but the reality is that is is a little of both with the added complication that while there are lots of bicycle manufacturers there are a relative few component manufactures. Shimano in particular may have bitten off more than it can chew. Almost every major bicycle manufacturer around the world uses at least some Shimano components on their bikes, and their components are found everywhere from the big box stores to the Tour de France. Bike shops are also clamoring for service parts to handle increased repair loads. So we are hitting Shimano from all sides. What this means for bike manufactures is that even if they can ramp up their frame production they may not be able to find enough components to hang on the frame.
Remember also that they have multiple parts manufactures that they depend on. So even if they can get Shimano components or substitute SRAM, they still have similar issues with all the other components on the bikes. Small manufacturers like Industry Nine are still running months behind even in December. We are seeing tube and tire shortages as most of the rubber products are made by the two big tire companies Cheng Shin Tire (CST / Maxxis) and Kenda. In short both manufacturers and shops are fighting sourcing issues, and the only solution seems to be place and order and wait.
Question #4: When will it get back to normal?
Short answer is that we don't know, but reading the writing on the wall, even with Covid vaccines in place 2021 looks to be more of the same. Many models of bikes are already sold out through 2021. For example multiple Models in Specialized lines are already listed as "oversold" which means the company has already take orders more bikes than they plan on producing in 2021. If you walked into my shop today and asked to order a Stumpjumper, unless you got lucky and I happened to have already ordered it earlier in the year, the bike you ordered would be at a minimum into 2022 before they were able to ship it to us.
So keep the rubber side down and get a few more miles out of that bike you are riding. We are not out of the woods yet.
